FX Insights Q2 2024: The Waiting Game

Major central banks, led by the US Fed, are waiting for more good data to build the confidence needed to cut rates, but there is still hope the ‘last mile’ of inflation will not be significantly trickier. The USD, and hence USTs and US monetary policy, remain a key variable. The pricing of assets suggest a great deal of optimism. The ‘waiting game’ may back extended low volatility in the near term. Valuations that have become stretched expose assets, including currencies, to potentially large reversals of gains seen over the last few years. 2024 is the biggest global election year in history. Idiosyncratic factors may reshape the domestic scenarios and could have global geopolitical implications. We continue to have a gradual and sequential approach in terms of hedging in LatAm, starting with lower carry, and are generally buyers of the EUR on dips in a climbing range.