Last week’s key market movers:
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Green light/red light. Escalation and stalled US–Iran talks pushed oil above USD100 and drove equity weakness. Markets alternated between sell-offs and rebounds on ceasefire headlines;
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US stocks hit new highs but momentum slowed after a strong 3‑week rally driven by Semis tech strength;
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Strong retail sales despite higher gasoline prices supported the growth outlook.
Looking ahead:
- Iran military conflict (During the week): While noise seems to be fading, mixed messages from Iran/US together with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz act as a "logistics tax," capping industrial production and increasing stagflation odds;
- Big tech earnings week (Wed: MSFT, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet; Thur: Apple): With expectations at ATH, if the M7 signal a pause in GPU orders due to weak ROI, it would be the ultimate "sell signal" for Semis.