Last week’s key market movers:
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Markets largely traded on US-Iran developments rather than traditional economic data. The announcement of the reopening of Hormuz drove record highs in equities and sharp drops in crude;
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Tech-led rally pushed MSCI USA and Nasdaq to fresh records amid easing energy fears;
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Crude swung from c.USD110 to low‑USD80s on shifting war headlines and supply expectations;
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Falling oil temporarily reduced pressure on inflation and the rates outlook.
Looking ahead:
- Iran military conflict (During the week): Hormuz remains in a state of high-tension "limbo" after a chaotic weekend where Iranian claims of an open waterway were met with a continued US naval blockade and the seizure of an Iranian-flagged vessel. Negotiations mediated by Pakistan are at a critical juncture in Islamabad, but with the two-week ceasefire set to expire this Wednesday, the "reopening" narrative will face a major credibility test this week;
- Earnings season (During the week): TSLA, IBM and Intel are among the key names reporting this week;
- AI Tech conference (During the week): Google’s Cloud Next conference and Adobe’s summit will spotlight AI developments. Given the sharp AI-related stock recovery, these events will be followed closely.