2025/08/28

Spanish Autonomous Communities: approval of a new agreement by the CDGAE to facilitate the return of the Autonomous Communities to the markets

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  • CDGAE’s 28 July agreement opens a new, more flexible pathway for regions to tap the markets from 2026.
    It replaces the 2018 framework and allows every Autonomous Community to blend Regional Financing Fund (FFCA) loans with market funding in the period between 2026 and 2028. Most regions are expected to regain full market autonomy once this transition ends, thus strengthening their fiscal responsibility. 
  • Given the lack of fiscal targets, the agreement establishes that all Spanish regions can adhere to the Financial Facility compartment of the FFCA to finance their funding needs in 2026, except for those that fail to meet their average supplier payment period (PMP), as established in Royal‑Decree Law 17/2014, which currently disqualifies Valencia and Murcia from joining the FFCA’s Financial Facility compartment.
  • Key eligibility rule: one investment-grade rating plus balanced budget at YE2024 or debt-to-GDP ≤ 19.5%.
    The seventeen Spanish regions already meet at least one IG rating condition. Meeting either threshold grants full market access if desired or allows for mixed funding (market + State loans); the region may otherwise still issue for up to 10% of its funding needs.
    This two-tier design lowers the bar compared with the 2018 deficit-debt-expenditure trio and broadens participation. It also serves to anchor market confidence while nudging high-debt regions toward a gradual adjustment.
  • The FFCA’s evolution underscores why a hybrid model is timely.
    From 2014-2018 the Fund covered all long-term needs; the 2018 agreement launched a partial return to the markets but only Andalusia made use of it. Improved macro conditions and lessons learned justify today’s broader, rules-based opening to the markets. The aim is to shrink extraordinary State aid as financial conditions normalise.
  • Three-year Multi-Annual Debt Plans (MDPs) are required for those regions opting for the mixed financing scheme.
    Regions seeking the hybrid route must file an MDP for the 2026-2028 period by 30 Nov. 2025, detailing volumes, instruments, maturities, early repayments, calendars and YE2025 debt forecasts. The Ministry of Finance must approve these MDPs, will reassess them each year, and material changes trigger compulsory updates. Regions limited to 10% market funding submit a lighter Annual Debt Plan for 2026.
  • Implementation map for 2026 channels funding where balance-sheet health permits.
    Group 1 (Madrid, Navarre, the Basque Country, Galicia, Asturias, Castile-and-León, the Canary Islands) would fund 100% in markets as a base-case scenario.
    Group 2 (Valencia, Catalonia, Murcia) are limited to 10% of funding requirements raised in the financial markets.
    Group 3 (Andalusia, Aragon, Balearics, Cantabria, Castile-La Mancha, Extremadura, La Rioja) could mix roughly 30% of market funding with State loans in the first year of the MDP. (Andalusia, which has been in the hybrid scheme since 2018, will likely start from a higher point, but can go even higher if it wishes to do so.)
  • Overall market take-up could reach 40-50% of the Autonomous Communities’ EUR33bn gross needs in 2026.
    Debt forgiveness under the FFCA trims required funding to EUR20.6bn; even then, the share raised in markets rises from 35% (bonds and loans) in 2025 and could reach up to 45-50% in the 2026-2028 period.
    This shift boosts price discovery, diversifies investor bases and lessens State balance-sheet exposure. Increased autonomy, however, will hinge on continued fiscal discipline and credible execution of MDPs.
  • Lack of individual 2024 fiscal targets blurs compliance assessment but the new CGDAE agreement fills the gap.
    The June stability targets compliance report could only compare aggregate regional figures with national goals, limiting its usefulness. This said, the new CDGAE criteria now serve as an operative benchmark for evaluating regions’ eligibility and future financing paths. Aggregate data show the regional subsector only met the debt target on an aggregate basis, highlighting the need for renewed fiscal anchors.
  • Record 2026 State advance payments (EUR156.99bn, +6.5%) and 2024 settlements lift total State transfers in 2026 to EUR169.56bn, a new record high.
    Combined with the market-access roadmap, these resources underpin the delivery of public services while the new financing model beds in. Timely cash injections also offset arrears from delayed 2025 updates of advance payments, illustrating the State’s continued fiscal backstop for the regions.
  • The 2023 regional financing system final figures highlight a slowdown in growth compared to 2022, exposing structural limitations.
    The definitive financing of the Common Regime Autonomous Communities only increased by EUR2.9bn (1.94%) in 2023, which, adjusted for inflation (3.4%), represents a slight real decrease. This weaker growth contrasts sharply with the 14% surge recorded in 2022, reflecting both a deceleration in GDP growth and an 8% reduction in State transfers following the significant increase in the previous year. Moreover, disparities among territories became more visible: Cantabria advanced significantly, while Aragón, La Rioja, and the Balearic Islands lost ground. By contrast, Murcia, Valencia, Andalusia, and Castille-La Mancha remained at the bottom of the per-capita financing rankings.
  • The redistributive equalisation flows show a growing dependence on State contributions.
    The Guarantee Fund, Sufficiency Fund, and Convergence Funds combined with regional tax revenues shaped the final effective financing. Taxes represented 91.4% of financing, although their contribution varied widely - from 135 points in Madrid to 55 in the Canary Islands. Equalisation flows redistributed EUR24bn: of which more than EUR13bn was from the State, and more than EUR10bn from high-income regions like Madrid, Catalonia, and the Balearic Islands. These transfers were crucial for lower-income territories, particularly Extremadura and the Canary Islands, where they exceeded 78% and 99% of transferred tax revenues, respectively. As such, while the model equalises resources across regions, it also highlights the growing dependence on State contributions and the uneven fiscal capacity of Autonomous Communities.

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