-
Mexico is experiencing a new export boom despite rising trade barriers. The main drivers are the AI capex cycle, US-China tensions and Mexico’s favourable tariff position.
-
Trade openness has not delivered stronger long-term growth. Weak investment has constrained productivity and limited domestic value added.
-
The current export cycle is being led by technology. High-complexity manufacturing exports are outperforming their long-term trend.
-
Computer exports are the main growth engine. Their strong performance reflects rising AI-related investment and hyperscalers’ demand for data centres.
-
Electronics exports are also expanding rapidly. However, greater domestic production of intermediate inputs is needed to raise value added.
-
The auto industry remains the main weak spot. Softer US demand and protectionist policies are weighing on export growth.
-
The AI-driven export boom should remain supportive in the medium term. However, a slowdown in AI investment would pose meaningful downside risks.
-
The MXN is the main beneficiary of the new export cycle. Stronger external accounts support the currency, while the impact on domestic growth remains limited.