The market sell-off has abated this week, with broader support levels holding firm amid headlines that the US is seeking a one-month ceasefire and a broader framework to end the conflict in the Middle East. Cyclical stocks have outperformed defensives over the past week, posting a +4% relative gain as lower oil prices ease some of the stagflationary concerns. Reports that the US is assembling 3,000 elite forces for deployment into the Middle East point to a likely return of market complacency, mirroring the lead-up to the initial strikes, when the market largely disregarded the substantial US military build-up in the region.We continue to believe Iran is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire, given the history of such agreements being broken and see ongoing merit in downside positions.Given the elevated volatility (1M ATM IV at the 3YPc100%), we recommend long SX5E Apr26 5550/5400 put spreads, costing 0.7% of underlying for a 3.5x max return.