Following our SX7E break out trade, and with the broader european bank sector trading back at channel range highs, we now see assymetric downside risks, after a staggering +75% YtD gain (STOXX +14%). Current valuations are pricing blue skies ahead for the economy (ongoing GDP growth, prolonged elevated rates and resilient asset quality), which sways our thoughts to look for tactical shorts. Santander has been one of the best YtD performers in the SX7E (+120%) driven predominantly by higher loan sensitivity to interest rates and exposure to high growth markets. With the name now trading at a 1Y fwd PTBV valuation of 1.7x (a 23% premium to the SX7E) and taking advantage of rich volatility (ATM IV, 3YPc82), we propose Long Mar26 9 puts financed by Mar25 10/10.5 call spreads costing 0.4% of underlying (Spot ref: 9.9, Fwd. ref 9.9).

