The broader staffing sector has underperformed in a softening job market, persistently high interest rates, and a subdued economic cycle, with Randstad's weaker-than-expected 4Q25 revenue adding further pressure. Adecco has not been immune, despite returning to growth in 3Q25 on the back of improving European conditions and is now trading near trough EV/sales levels.
With 4Q25 earnings due on 25th February and Adecco's relative outperformance in both price action and revenue growth versus peers, we anticipate limited potential for significant positive surprises. Amid persistent sector weakness and emerging signs of defensive market rotation, potentially leading to a broader sell-off, we prefer to express our constructive long-term view (rooted in an accelerating business cycle and tailwinds from elevated EU infrastructure and defence spending) through down-and-in barrier call options and propose Long Dec26 22/24 Call Spreads with a Knock-In barrier 20 costing 2.2% of underlying for a max return of c.4.2x. (Spot ref 21.5, Fwd ref 20.8)