Key market-moving themes
- Tariffs: still the clear market focus. Sharp US market rebound (c. 6% over the week) as geographical tariffs, with the exception of China, were paused for 90 days, together with a ‘softer’ stance on Trump regarding deals and China.
- UST 10yr and USD sharp moves: questions about the future of the USD as the reserve currency and ‘risk-free’ status.
- 1Q25 earnings seasons kick-off: solid results from JPM, MS and WFC, with management reiterating 2025 targets.
- US CPI: a tad lower than expectations but not market-moving. Modest tariff impact, more clarity in April number..
Our view
- Tariffs on electronics/Semis: Although messages were again confusing, this shows that Trump is willing to negotiate or at least apply sector-specific tariffs. But the process is uncertain and will take time - We are still in a ‘hard tariff’ scenario. Outperform EU Utilities, US Health Care, US Media & Entert.
- ECB rates decision: Odds of 25bp rate cuts slightly above 50% (increased recently) and should pause at 2.25%. ECB statement to avoid dovish hints - Potential rate cut small positive for European equities but forward-looking ECB messages critical.