Key market-moving themes
- US job market data, which came in softer than expected;
- Equities slipped amid bond market turbulence (global fiscal concerns)/challenges to Fed independence
Our view
- France vote of no confidence: Macron will not step down, and the snap elections are unlikely to bring major changes — the structure of the National Assembly is expected to be mostly unchanged. As a result, Macron will appoint another prime minister - Tactically neutral CAC40 and wait for corrections, especially in the banking sector (the main drag);
- Global utilities: Grid modernisation play: Grids are the hidden bottleneck of the energy transition. Meeting net-zero will demand USD21trn in upgrades by 2050, yet investment is lagging, leaving renewables stuck in queues and blackout risks rising - Long US utilities and tactical long EU utilities;
- Gold price upside: Gold miners give amplified upside to soaring gold prices — margins widen, cash flows surge, and equities still lag the metal. With stronger discipline and rising payouts, they’re a catch-up trade and inflation hedge in one - Long gold miners globally.