Key market-moving themes
- ‘Liberation Day’ on 2 April: Expect high volatility across major indexes, particularly in Europe. Further negotiations and a softening in concessions expected over the coming weeks.
- Last Friday, Powell said that the Fed would hold rates as they are and will watch how the economy reacts before making a move, indicating it is impossible to know the impact of Trump’s recent moves on the economy. This sent markets further down today.
Our view
- Reciprocal Tariffs: Expect high volatility across major indexes, particularly in Europe. Further negotiations and a softening in concessions expected over the coming weeks - ‘Hard tariff scenario’ - defensives, local business. ‘Soft tariff scenario’ - manufacturing sectors. Detailed update in our 2Q25 Equity Views
- China and EU’s actions on US tariffs: China is now discussing frontloading stimulus to counter tariff hit, while EU will respond to US’ tariffs. This could create more noise this week in the equity markets - Long China. Detailed update in our 2Q25 Equity Views.