2021/05/04

Peru – Time to add some USD bond positions

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The race for the Peruvian presidency remains wide open. Heading into the runoff recent polls show Pedro Castillo with an advantage but Keiko Fujimori is closing the gap. It is expected to be a tight race with both candidates having about a 50% chance of being elected. We have contemplated various scenarios, one of them being that Mr. Castillo wins the elections and he does not change his rhetoric, if that is the case, we believe that his economic and political agenda could be quite limited, given that he does not have the overwhelming popular backing and he does not have Congress’s support either. Beyond politics, strong copper prices should be supportive for the economy and Peruvian assets. We recommend adding some USD bond positions, specifically in the belly of the curve (PERU 31s and 32s), where bonds are trading at higher yields than credits with lower ratings (i.e., URUGUAY 31s), and the 10s30s sector of the curve that is trading fairly flat

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