Banco de México released the balance of payments figures for 3Q25. The current account registered a surplus of USD 2,325mn, supported by resilient remittances. External demand for Mexican non-oil exports also remains firm; however, stronger import growth eroded the non-oil trade surplus, resulting in a goods trade deficit during the quarter. The services deficit widened, driven by a smaller travel-services surplus and a larger transport deficit. Overall, the services shortfall continues to reflect deficits in transport, insurance, financial, and other services, with travel services being the only segment that typically posts a positive flow. Despite its seasonal pattern, travel inflows have remained relatively stagnant so far in 2025. In addition, we highlight that after years of sustained expansion, remittances have stalled beyond usual seasonal effects in 2025.
The financial account registered net outflows of USD3,245mn in 3Q25. Portfolio investment posted an inflow of USD6.2bn due to an atypically high UMS issuance in the quarter that attracted significant foreign inflows. Beyond UMS, both foreigners and locals reduced their positions in equity markets while foreign investors recorded outflows from MXN-denominated fixed-income assets. Direct investment recorded net inflows of USD6.1bn; flows to Mexico reached USD7.2bn, mostly driven by intercompany transfers and new investments (which reached a 3Y high). Other investment saw outflows from both Mexican and foreign participants, while derivatives continued to increase in 3Q when they registered an inflow of USD789mn, effectively reversing the sharp outflows seen in 1Q25. International reserves posted a net accumulation in 3Q25, which reflect the net effect of the change in gross international reserves and valuation adjustments. Finally, errors and omissions continued to narrow during the quarter, although the net accumulated balance remains positive in 2025.