2021/07/13

In June, international investors’ Colombian TES holdings stood at 25.7%: BBVA Coltes bondholders’ report

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In June, international investors’ appetite for Colombian TES did not fade; their participation increased to 25.7%, adding COP2.6trn in positions to reach COP95.8trn, another new record. During the month: i) foreigners were the main buyers; ii) the stock of TES increased by COP4.0trn; and iii) the curve flattened, with bond yields at the front of the curve up by c.30bp on average, while yields on the long end were down by 30bp. We note that foreign investors took some interest in inflation-linked bonds, as their positions increased to COP3.9trn. While this is still small in percentage terms, it is the highest level registered since 2013. The recent credit rating downgrade by Fitch from BBB- to BB+ did not spare local currency bonds, but the two other major rating agencies have kept local debt in the investment-grade bracket. The downgrade did not come as a surprise, and while some of the bad news is over and mostly priced in, going forward, investors are likely to be looking for the details of the tax bill, plus inflation and economic data to gauge a change in the central bank’s stance.

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