The October headline CPI data was well above expectations (1.0% MoM vs 0.6% expected), pushing headline YoY inflation higher to 4.7% from 4.0% September, above the BCCh’s 4Q24 projection of 4.34%. The volatile components drove the headline figure higher in October, led by electricity prices, which contributed half of the total increase (48bp), while volatile foods and energy contributed two-thirds of the total (67bp). Still, the ex-volatile print was also on the high side of seasonally normal and has recently trended higher. Combined with an uncertain external environment, the data can give the BCCh reason to be cautious, even if the recent economic data has been weak.
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