Summary: COLTES buyers in April were concentrated in commercial banks, which added COP11.2trn in total, with offshores largely flat for the month in terms of allocation changes. Meanwhile, public entities were the main sellers of COLTES, reducing their allocation by c.COP2.2trn during the month. Net issuance totalled c.COP16trn with Commercial finance companies making up the bulk of the remaining purchases of net issuance, adding COP3.3trn in April.
-
Market view: fiscal risks remain and more progress and clarity on fiscal consolidation will be needed from the Hacienda to support the performance of nominal bonds, particularly given the pressure from core yields. As of late, investors are still skeptical given the “revenue raising first expenditures cuts later” approach by the administration. We have remained on the sidelines for now after taking profit on our Long COLTES 2031. More clarity and adjustments will likely be provided with the presentation of the medium-term fiscal framework on 14 June. Indeed, even the IMF is waiting for Colombia's Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, due by 14 June, before determining whether to reinstate or permanently withdraw the US$8.1bn flexible credit facility that was renewed on 26 April 2024. For now, we would prefer to hold shorter-dated exposure on the curve that maximises carry and rolldown, such as COLTES 2028s and 2029s.
-
Public entities were the main sellers of COLTES in April, reducing their allocation by a sizeable COP2.2trn, which comes after buying a similar amount in March. The selling was all concentrated in the Nominal TES market in a shift that drove holdings up to COP2.2trn (-50.3% MoM) or down from 0.7% to 0.3% of the COLTES market.
-
International investors’ COLTES allocation remained fairly steady in April. The supply growth in COLTES of 2.6% MoM meant holdings fell from 17.3% in March to 16.9%, still close to the lowest level since September 2015. Interestingly, foreign investor activity has mostly been focused on selling nominals and buying UVR linkers, with these transactions accounting for c.COP0.3trn of flows between both markets.
-
Commercial Banks were the largest buyers of COLTES in the month of April with net purchases totalling just over COP11.2trn increasing their holdings to c.COP106.2trn (+11.8% MoM), which pushed ownership up by c.1.4pp to 16.7%. As a result of this monthly increase, Nominal COLTES accounted for 83% with the remainder going to UVR linkers.
-
Pension funds were net sellers of COLTES in April, reducing by just c.COP0.8trn, or 0.4% vs. the 2.6% growth rate of the total COLTES market, which led to a slight decrease in holdings to 31.1% from 32.1% in March 2025. Sales were split between nominal and inflation linkers (UVR).
-
Commercial Financial Companies were the second-largest buyers of COLTES adding COP3.3trn of COLTES in April, which was a considerable increase in holdings of 254% MoM from c.COP1.4trn to c.COP4.7trn, and that pushed their holdings to 0.7% from 0.2%.
-
Insurance Companies and Mutual Funds also bought COLTES in April (+COP2.6trn in total, +COP1.4trn from Insurance, and +COP1.2 from Mutual funds). This bumped allocation up slight by 1.9% MoM in Insurance companies and 7.5% in Mutual funds. As a result, holdings in Insurance companies fell slightly to 11.8% in April from 11.9% in March, while Mutual fund holdings rose to 2.6% from 2.5%.