2021/05/14

Asset swap radar: Short-term UMS ASW spread vs. MBono reaches 3-year lows

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On Thursday, Banco de México left unchanged the benchmark rate as broadly expected. The statement was neutral considering recent upward inflation surprises, and although the recent CPI dynamics were highlighted in the document and likely upside risks were mentioned, Banxico kept unchanged its expected convergence. The CB did not hint at a potential hike in the near term, which might give nominal rates some breather to their recent upwards movement as they are currently pricing in hikes in the following 6 months. During the week, cross-currency basis swaps moved upwards. The USDMXN has been trading within a narrow range and expectations remain relatively anchored. These factors together with a prolonged pause should help basis consolidate around current levels. Meanwhile, UMS/UST spreads continued to adjust to the downside. At the very short end (3Y-5Y), spreads are at lows and the 10Y tenor risk premium has moved more laterally near its pre-pandemic level. Because UMS asset swap spreads against Mbonos are at minimums in the 3Y and 5Y section, the UMS asset swaps there are no longer attractive from an investor's point of view. However, at the belly-long end, UMS asset swaps still make sense, as levels are more attractive than local rates and remain above pre-pandemic levels.

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