Roughly 15% of the STOXX 600 report Q4 earnings over the next 2 weeks. For the main European companies reporting, the implied earnings move for Nokia is the richest compared to the last eight earnings seasons while H&M, Philips, Ericsson and ASML are currently pricing the lowest move compared to the historicals.
ASML and Novartis stand out to us, trading at around 1y highs in spot, yet not carrying any serious premium into earnings. Flow wise there has been a sharp uptick in interest in owning gamma on Luxury names after the misses from Boss and Burberry. Looking at Luis Vuitton, having a limited event premium, we think it could make sense to own gamma there and with spot at a local low we would focus on calls.
As per Bloomberg data, the estimated growth for STOXX 600 Q4 2023 earnings is -5.8%. The sectors seeing the highest yoy growth for Q4 2023 eps estimates are Insurance (38.4%), Telcos (+26.5%) and Banks (+24.2%), while the sectors with the lowest growth are Basic Resources (-61.8%), Oil & Gas (-47.3%) and Chemicals (-45%). Earnings growth for the STOXX 600 for FY2024 is 1.3%