EUAs spent the first half of last week consolidating, with December 2025 EUAs marking a weekly low at EUR77.90 on Wednesday morning. EUAs flipped on Thursday afternoon, squeezing to EUR80.37 by Friday afternoon, before risk-off from US-China tariff headlines knocked carbon and equities back into the close. After scratching at the EUR80 handle, the key question now is whether the market can build enough momentum and retest YtD highs or whether we are set for consolidation. The “bull case” focuses on the supply side, future scarcity, lower auction volumes and free allocation from 2026. In addition, there are upside risks from a colder-than-normal winter, subdued wind generation, and renewed strength in power and natural gas markets.