2025/06/30

EU Carbon Watch – Macro, Middle East & 2040 Policy in Focus

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EUAs lost 2.75% on the week, with December 2025 futures printing a high of EUR74.57 per tonne early Tuesday before grinding lower to a Friday low of EUR70.11 per tonne. The impact on the options market was limited. EUAs were caught in the crosscurrents of shifting sentiment last week. Wednesday 2 July is the key event this week. The European Commission is set to publish its proposal for the 2040 climate target under the EU Climate Law – a major milestone for Europe’s clean transition. On macro, eyes will shift back to US President Trump and the 9 July tariff deadline. On the micro side, there are only four EUA auctions this week, which are light supply and could lend some support mid-week.

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