2021/11/03

Industrias Bachoco. New YE22e TP, still the same old doubts

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After updating Bachoco’s estimates, we now project a 5.3% EBITDA CAGR 20-25e and a 9.0% long-term EBITDA margin. Nevertheless, we still expect short-term headwinds due to the ongoing normalisation of domestic poultry prices combined with higher raw material costs (2022e EBITDA -16.5% YoY). We have set a TP of MXN84.5 for 2022e vs. MXN83.5 for YE21e, and we reiterate our Market Perform recommendation. We maintain our conservative view on this name despite its appealing valuation (EV/EBITDA 2022e -40.2% vs. its five-year average and -46.1% vs. the regional peer average) on the back of persistent operating volatility, which could now turn into a downcycle, as well as uncertainty regarding the “Others” division.

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