2024/08/15

Mexican airports: TUA is not enough

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Mexico City Airport Trust (MEXCAT: Baa3/BBB/BBB-) USD bonds are expected to perform with a better return than CFE, the other IG quasi-sovereign, or unsecured BNCE notes also backed by Mexico. MEXCAT has demonstrated resilience since the economic downturn years after the pandemic, consistently meeting interest payments through cash flows from the TUA (airport usage fee) collected from airlines operating at AICM (Mexico City International Airport), without needing to tap into reserve accounts during this period. The trust benefits from several mitigating factors, including a fully funded six-month debt service reserve, restrictions on additional indebtedness, and a lock-up trigger if the DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) falls to 2x. As of the end of April 2024, the DSCR had been an impressive 3.79x, showcasing the robustness of its financial structure. We expect MEXCAT 28s and 46s to outperform other IG quasi-sovereigns directly supported by Mexico, such as CFE and BNCE.

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