We are assessing the impact of the change in tariff regulation notified by the Federal Civil Aviation Agency, "AFAC," a decentralized entity of the Mexican Ministry of Infrastructure, Communications, and Transportation ("SICT") on the airport groups: Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP: local scale Aaa/mxAAA/Nr), Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte (GACENO or OMA: local scale, Nr/mxAAA/mxAAA), and Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (NR/NR/NR). Last Wednesday, the three airport groups separately informed their investors that AFAC had notified them of the decision to modify the terms of the tariff regulation, without providing any further details about the changes. However, they emphasised that these modifications take immediate effect and will adhere to the tariff regulation terms established in Annex 7 of the concession titles they received in the late 1990s.
The AFAC has initiated immediate modifications to the regulation governing airport fees, prompting a thorough assessment of their implications on the operations of these airport conglomerates. Specific details or reasons behind this decision, as well as the precise areas of modification, have not yet been disclosed. The three groups are evaluating the changes to the tariff regulation terms and their potential impacts on their business, operating results, and financial condition.
We believe the financial impact could be negative for the concessionaires, as it may entail a reduction in revenue and lower EBITDA margins (currently around 60%). However, margins are historically high, and we consider that a reduction in TUA (Airport Use Fee) could reduce the EBITDA of the airport groups, but we do not believe it would exceed a reduction of 30%. In recent days, local press reports mentioned that the reduction in TUAs will be between 5-8%. We believe that GAP, OMA, and ASUR will take measures to mitigate these potential impacts, likely through a reduction in dividends. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's administration made changes to the formula establishing price limits for airport tariffs, including the TUA. The measure will affect the entire tariff system, which also includes airport services for runway use and leasing spaces to airlines and other providers.
We want to focus on how negative this could be for bondholders; however, by enforcing the condition to bondholders through the revocation or termination of concessions and/or non-compliance with other obligations, as we believe they are protected due to the structure managed by the airport groups GAP and OMA. Our strategy to engage with the MXN credit airports market given the current conditions can be summarised with GAP bonds (GAP 8.14% 27 and GAP TIIE + 22bp 2026). We believe that OMA will be the most affected company since its aeronautical revenues are solely derived in Mexico.