Some scary oil scenarios. Israel launched targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, triggering a fresh geopolitical crisis in the Middle East. The immediate reaction in global markets was sharp, signalling a renewed sensitivity to geopolitical disruptions after a prolonged period of relative calm. Some analysts now estimate that any sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil prices as high as USD130/bbl, severely affecting global inflation and slowing economic recovery across major energy-importing nations.
Meanwhile, OPEC is staying the course. Despite heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, OPEC has maintained its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day. This projection, reiterated in its June Monthly Oil Market Report released on Monday, reflects the group’s confidence in long-term demand fundamentals, even as short-term volatility intensifies.
Next week's data. Qatar’s trade balance (March, previously USD16.7bn) and GDP growth (1Q25, previously 2.0%), Israel’s CPI forecast (June, previously 2.4% YoY) and Saudi Arabia’s trade balance (April, previously USD19.8bn) are the important data releases to watch next week.