Ceasefire deal signed. Now what? Israel and Hamas have agreed to a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal following 15 months of fighting. The agreement will unfold in three phases, focusing on hostage and prisoner exchanges, the return of displaced civilians, and the eventual transfer of Gaza’s governance to a new authority, although the timeline for implementation remains fluid.
Egypt to benefit from the ceasefire. Houthi attacks, which have halved traffic through the Red Sea, have significantly affected Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues since October 2023. The markets took the news as a definite positive for Egypt, as shipping disruptions led to a USD7bn drop in Egypt’s revenue from the Suez Canal in 2024 (-60% YoY).
From oil prices to borrowing - MENA after Trump. Oil markets face further uncertainty as Donald Trump returns to the White House. This brings the question of countries’ external borrowing needs in the region to the forefront.
Next week's data. Qatar’s CPI (December, previously 0.95% YoY), trade balance (December, previously USD16.7bn) and Saudi Arabia’s foreign trade oil exports (November, previously -17.2% YoY) are the important data releases to watch next week.