2023/08/08

Bond spreads between PETBRA and Brazil are poised to tighten, we prefer PETBRA 2033s

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We find the current bond spread levels between PETBRA and Brazil attractive. We believe the expected issuance of Brazil global bonds under the “Sustainability” umbrella could put some pressure on the Brazilian USD bond curve and, as a result, the spreads between the two credits could tighten. The fundamentals of PETBRA remain relatively unchanged, the change in government has had less of an impact than originally expected, and the recent recovery in oil prices should serve as another positive down the road, plus there is some sort of scarcity value in PETBRA bonds. Taking into consideration liquidity, we favour PETBRA 2033s, which seem slightly cheaper on the fitted curve, as an outright position or versus Brazil 2033s.

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