We have a positive view on airport operators’ MXN-bonds as they trade at a premium compared to Mexico’s local AAA scale credit curve. We have revisited our recommendations on Grupo Aeroportuario del Pácifico’s (GAP: local scale Aaa/mxAAA/Nr) and Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte’s (GACENO or OMA: local scale, Nr/mxAAA/mxAAA) bonds.
The Mexican airport sector remains resilient, with the strong post-pandemic recovery driven by an increasing demand for cross-border logistics. Strategic hubs like Guadalajara (GAP) and Monterrey (OMA) have benefited from their proximity to industrial corridors. Upcoming catalysts like the 2026 FIFA World Cup offer significant potential upside. Air traffic is expected to surge with matches scheduled in both Guadalajara and Monterrey, unlocking opportunities in both aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue streams. Both operators are preparing infrastructure expansions through their Master Development Plans (PMDs). Meanwhile, GAP’s bid for 25 airports in Brazil could transform its scale, although this could also introduce credit risks if the acquisition is funded with debt.
Even so, we believe that the increasing geopolitical risks could threaten international traffic flows. Historical trade frictions and new regulatory hurdles, such as the July 2025 US DOT order affecting Mexican carriers, have raised concerns about capacity constraints and revenue pressures. The potential downgrade or prolonged loss of Mexico’s Category 1 FAA aviation safety rating further compounds this risk, limiting route expansion and code-sharing opportunities with U.S. carriers.
Despite these challenges, in our opinion the fundamentals of airport operators remain sound: we believe the revenues are projected to remain flat in 2H25 and will growth during 2026, supported by the recovery in commercial revenues from duty-free purchases, restaurants, parking, and food and beverage (F&B) spaces. These revenues are expected to become increasingly significant as future investments focus on enhancing commercial areas to boost average passenger spending.
We believe the fixed-rate bonds with high-quality credit ratings that mature in the next one to five years could outperform the MXN-credit market: OMA 23-2L, OMA 22-2L, GAP 23-2L are good examples of this strategy.