The Tariff Trilogy is a compilation masterpiece of our thinking, analysis and investment ideas around tariffs – the key topic in 2025. Since our first related publication we have been firm believers that tariffs are more of a negotiating tactic than a structural shift and despite all the uncertainty and market volatility they would be finally watered down.
Markets have diligently followed the three-step script we anticipated: i) market weakness immediately after tariff announcements; ii) ‘hard tariffs’ boosting defensive sectors prior to their implementation; iii) ‘soft tariffs’ upon tariff deferral triggering a sharp rally in the ‘tariff-sensitive’ sectors.
We expect investors to finally turn the page as deals with top countries are likely to be signed around the 1 August deadline. As we have anticipated in our just published Equity Views 2H25, this could be another strong catalyst for 2H25.