Keep one eye on local politics… On 30 June, Türkiye’s political landscape faces a pivotal moment as a court is set to rule on the legitimacy of the Republican People's Party's (CHP) Congress held in November 2023. The general view in the market is that the court is likely to postpone its ruling until autumn, which could cause an immediate relaxation in the markets but also has a downside.
…and the other on June inflation figures. In May, Türkiye’s annual inflation dipped to 35.41%, marking the lowest level since November 2021. This downward trend suggests that the CBRT's tight monetary policy, with the key interest rate held at 46%, is effectively anchoring inflation expectations.
New issues with no NIP. As investors were finally able to take a break from the Iran-Israel war and the inflation/rate-cut story started to attract foreign investors to the market once again, several prominent Turkish financial institutions and the Treasury have actively engaged in debt issuance, capitalising on improved investor sentiment and a more predictable macroeconomic environment.
Data to watch next week. The unemployment rate (May, previously 8.6%), trade balance (May, previously -USD12.1bn), manufacturing PMI (June, previously 47.2), CPI (June, previously 35.4% YoY) and effective exchange rate (June, previously 71.1) are the data to watch next week.