Looking ahead to 2H25, both the macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrops look increasingly challenging. Market dynamics are far from offering a text-book defensive approach with a direct impact on rate curves.
The room for additional dovishness left for central banks, although still arguably existing, may be limited; and the upward adjustment in yields may not be completed yet (real rates drivers) in a context of strong issuance activity and lack of material risk-off episodes.
In this context, the range-bound dynamics for peripheral sovereigns remain intact with Italy comparatively better positioned.
Join us as we discuss what to expect for rates, sovereigns and central bank strategy in 2H25.
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